I’m searching for any recreation theoretical insights for essentially the most primary type of The Resistance: Avalon. Particularly I’m a 5 participant recreation, with simply two added roles: Merlin and the Murderer. I’m methods that may be executed with out utilizing psychology, tells, hidden messages (together with however not restricted to cryptography and signing) and so on.
With out the extra roles – ie the vanilla model of the unique Resistance recreation – it’s fairly straightforward to calculate the profitable probabilities for the rebels if either side play optimally – for it’s 30% (assuming the traitors can keep away from double-failing missions with two spies). The nice crew principally has three probabilities to establish the spies (or the nice crew). They usually don’t have anything higher than probability to depend on, so they are going to select every of the ten doable groups with equal chance, for a complete of three/10 profitable probability.
When including Merlin, issues appear to be worse for the nice guys! If he takes no motion to assist the nice crew, he simply reduces their profitable probabilities to twenty% (since he has a 1/3 probability of being killed). If he does assist the nice crew, he will increase their profitable probabilities – however he additionally will increase his possibilities of being killed. Any motion he takes, or assertion he makes, which sways the opposite gamers to decide on the proper crew, may also be seen by the unhealthy guys. Assuming no hidden communication, they are going to see every of the statements made, and know who inspired the profitable crew, or discouraged the shedding ones.
So is there any technique for the nice crew which does higher than 20% on this setup? The technique have to be identified to all gamers forward of time. Simply to make it completely clear: I’m not asking for methods to “trace” to your team-mates which crew to choose, with out the unhealthy guys noticing or understanding what’s going on.
